Bangladesh Bank Governor Dr Ahsan H. Mansur on Monday expressed strong confidence in the country’s macroeconomic stability, saying foreign currency reserves are on track to reach and even surpass $35 billion by the end of the current fiscal year 2025–26.
“Reaching the $35 billion mark would establish a very comfortable level for the economy,” he said while speaking at a seminar on “Systematic Efforts to Understand Economic Pulse: Importance of Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)” at the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) office in the city.
The seminar was jointly organised by MCCI and Policy Exchange Bangladesh (PEB).
Dr Mansur said the target would be achieved even without IMF support, adding that any additional external funding would be “icing on the cake” rather than a necessity.
He highlighted major improvements in the balance of payments and the external sector. While the export sector remains under pressure, he pointed to favourable global trends, especially lower energy and commodity prices.
“For example, the average petroleum price has declined by about 30 percent. This is a direct gain for our economy,” he said.
Although import payments have risen by around 5–6 percent this year, the actual volume of imports has increased much more, he noted, citing Chattogram port data showing higher tonnage and container movement.
The governor also spoke about the earlier liquidity crisis in the banking sector, which began with a foreign exchange shortage. He said the central bank had to clear about $3.5 billion in arrears.
A fall in reserves from $48 billion to $20 billion had caused a sharp contraction in money supply, with trillions of taka leaving the system. As a result, deposit growth dropped to just 6.4 percent by December 2024, limiting private sector financing.
However, the situation has improved. Deposit growth has now rebounded to 11 percent.
“With total deposits at around 20 trillion taka, this means about 2.2 trillion taka has entered the system,” he said.
Dr Mansur stressed the need for real-time data in policymaking, saying leaders must rely on high-frequency indicators like daily exchange rates, interbank rates and remittance flows.
He shared encouraging news on remittances, noting that daily inflows recently crossed $170 million, while monthly collections were tracking at around 70 percent of the previous month.
He also welcomed the launch of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), thanking MCCI and Policy Exchange for the initiative, saying such tools help policymakers better understand economic trends.
Deputy High Commissioner and Development Director of the British High Commission James Goldman attended the seminar as special guest. MCCI President Kamran T. Rahman delivered the welcome speech, while PEB Chairman and CEO Dr M. Masrur Reaz presented the keynote.
