The next elected government is set to face three major challenges in the power and energy sector, including a severe gas crisis, the risk of power outages during peak seasons, and massive unpaid dues to private power producers.
The first and most immediate challenge will be managing the acute shortage of natural gas across the country, which is already causing widespread suffering in both residential and industrial sectors. Stakeholders warn that the situation could worsen during the upcoming Ramadan, irrigation season, and summer, when electricity demand typically peaks.
Experts fear that if adequate fuel supplies cannot be ensured this year, the government may struggle to control load-shedding, which has already begun at 1,000 to 1,200 megawatts nationwide. During Ramadan, load-shedding could rise to 2,000 megawatts if demand increases further.
At a virtual inter-ministerial meeting of the Power Division on January 21, chaired by Power and Energy Adviser Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan, Petrobangla warned that declining domestic gas production could further disrupt electricity generation.
Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution Company Operations Division General Manager Kazi Mohammad Saidul Hasan said residential gas supply has dropped sharply. While Titas requires 2,400 million cubic feet of gas per day, it is currently receiving only 1,500 million cubic feet.
Industrial leaders say the gas shortage has significantly increased production costs. Mohammad Shahriar, president of the Bangladesh Garments Accessories and Packaging Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said factory owners are being forced to rely on CNG, LPG, and diesel to keep operations running, pushing many factories to the brink of closure.
Energy expert Dr Ijaz Hossain warned that after 2030, natural gas supplies may decline to a level where commercial use becomes unviable. He noted limited progress in offshore gas exploration and said increasing reliance on imported fuel, declining domestic gas production, and aging power plants could push the power sector into a severe crisis within the next three to four years.
He added that electricity demand could reach 18,000 megawatts during the irrigation season this year. If fuel supply fails to meet summer demand, load-shedding of 1,500 to 2,000 megawatts is likely, which would further increase public hardship during Ramadan.
The Power Development Board (PDB) has sought an additional Tk 38,451 crore in subsidies to meet electricity demand during Ramadan, the national election period, the irrigation season, and summer. PDB officials warned that without the subsidy, prolonged nationwide load-shedding could begin as early as next month. They also cautioned that due to gas shortages, nearly one-third of gas-based power plants may remain idle during summer and Ramadan.
According to PDB sources, Bangladesh’s grid-based power generation capacity stands at around 29,000 megawatts, but only about half of that capacity is currently usable due to fuel shortages and other constraints, particularly gas shortages.
Meanwhile, unpaid dues to private power plants have risen to approximately Tk 30,000 crore. Prolonged delays in bill payments have made it difficult to open letters of credit for fuel imports, while unpaid bank loans and supplier bills are threatening electricity generation.
David Hasanat, president of the Bangladesh Independent Power Producers’ Association, said many plant owners are owed payments equivalent to six to seven months.
“If we don’t receive the arrears, we cannot open LCs or import fuel oil. Without fuel, it will be impossible to keep power plants operational,” he warned.
The mounting challenges underscore the urgent need for policy reforms and financial support to ensure uninterrupted power and energy supply in the coming years.
