Japan votes in snap elections Sunday with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi hoping to turn a honeymoon start into a resounding ballot box victory that could rile China and rattle financial markets.
Opinion polls suggest that Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed almost non-stop for decades, will easily win more than the 233 seats needed to regain a majority in the powerful 465-member lower house.
Pollsters even suggest with some caution due to undecided voters and wintry weather that the LDP and its coalition partner could secure 310 seats needed for a handy two-thirds majority.
This would be the best result for the LDP since 2017 when Takaichi’s mentor, the late ex-premier Shinzo Abe, achieved a similar result.
“The future is something you have to build with your own hands,” Japan’s first woman premier said in a campaign video on YouTube that, like her others, has gone viral.
“The LDP will lead the way,” she said.
Takaichi was a heavy metal drummer in her youth, an admirer of Britain’s “Iron Lady” Margaret Thatcher, and on the ultra-conservative fringe of the LDP when she became leader in October.
She has defied pessimists to be a hit with voters, especially young ones, with fans lapping up everything from her handbag to her jamming to a K-pop song with South Korea’s president.
“I came just to have a look at her. I think she is amazing,” Yuka Ando, 17, a high-school student who went with her mother to hear Takaichi speak on a cold Saturday in Tokyo, told AFP.
Takaichi has sounded tough on immigration, helping for now to slow the sharp rise of the populist “Japanese first” Sanseito party.
Immigration screening “has already become a little stricter, so that terrorists, and also industrial spies, cannot enter easily”, Takaichi said Saturday.
“We must properly examine whether (foreigners) are paying taxes, whether they are paying their health insurance premiums,” she added.
– Pandas and public debt –
Takaichi has however not had everything her own way, in particular with regard to worries about her stewardship of the public finances of Asia’s number-two economy.
She followed up a $135-billion stimulus package aimed at easing the pain of inflation — a big cause of voter discontent — with a campaign promise to suspend a consumption tax on food.
Japan’s debts are more than twice the size of the entire economy, and in recent weeks yields on long-dated bonds have hit record highs while the yen has seesawed.
Barely two weeks in office, Takaichi — seen before assuming the premiership as a China hawk — suggested that Japan could intervene militarily if Beijing sought to take self-ruled Taiwan by force.
China regards the democratic island as part of its territory and has not ruled out force to annex it.
With Takaichi having days earlier pulled out all the stops to welcome US President Donald Trump, Bejing’s reaction to her unscripted remarks was furious.
It summoned Tokyo’s ambassador, warned its citizens against visiting Japan and conducted joint air drills with Russia. Last month, Japan’s two last pandas were even returned to China.
Trump has not publicly weighed in on the spat but last week endorsed Takaichi as a “strong, powerful, and wise Leader, and one that truly loves her Country”.
Margarita Estevez-Abe, associate professor of political science at Syracuse University, said that the China episode raised Takaichi’s popularity even more.
“Now she doesn’t have to worry about any elections until 2028, when the next upper house elections will take place,” Estevez-Abe told AFP.
“So the best scenario for Japan is that Takaichi kind of takes a deep breath and focuses on amending the relationship with China.”
